Not a bad week, not a great week. The sum of all the deviations has been 081, 479, and now 483 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 08, and now 62.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 1% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ and IWM are below their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
A time to buy – Sum of all deviations is up 2 weeks in a row if only barely.
You should listen to MacroVoices All-Star #17 posted 14Jun19 which featured Danielle DiMartino Booth. She discussed last weeks Federal Reserve Board week long meeting in Chicago. As part of that session they changed the words “zero lower bound” with “effective lower bound” so that they can make negative interest rates (like Japan and the EU) and not violate any of their rules. There were also other terms changed to help hide their actions. Also interesting is that the first paper presented said that if the FED had cut rates from 5+% to -5% during the last crisis the the impact on the economy would have mitigated. They are setting the stage for a real downturn. Negative interest rates will cause cash hoarding (resulting government penalties) which may kill the financial system. Think of what that will do to your pension, bank account, etc.
IRA#1
SGold has a price of 19.97, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 70.75, a sell price 67.21, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.43, a sell price 16.56, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SGold has a price of 19.97, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in SGold
IRA #2 – invest 20% in SGold
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
11.91 01-03 FSAGX 19.97 SGold YES
10.37 02-23 FBSOX 70.37 SITServices NO
10.22 03-05 FSPCX 62.66 SInsurance YES
9.35 04-10 FSHOX 57.32 SConstructionandHousing YES
8.37 05-05 FRESX 45.69 RealEstateInvestment YES
7.94 06-02 FSCHX 12.77 SChemicals YES
7.84 07-04 FSUTX 90.79 SUtilities YES
7.53 08-17 FSPTX 16.63 STechnology NO
7.53 09-02 FSDPX 68.20 SMaterials NO
7.43 10-22 FSVLX 16.65 SConsumerFinance NO
7.22 11-16 FSCSX 18.09 SSoftware&ITServices NO
7.19 12-05 FSRNX 16.82 RealEstateIndex YES
6.98 13-06 FTRNX 104.04 Trend NO
6.84 14-01 FDLSX 15.83 SLeisure YES
6.40 15-05 FIVFX 21.33 InternationalCapApp NO
6.39 16-04 FNBGX 13.71 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex NO
6.29 17-14 FTQGX 24.84 FocusedStock NO
6.26 18-01 FEMEX 9.85 EmergingEMEA YES
6.21 19-02 FDFFX 36.67 Independence NO
6.17 20-03 FIUIX 27.29 Telecom&Utilities YES
Last Week
01-22 11.57 FBSOX 70.75 SITServices NO
02-02 10.87 FSAGX 19.66 SGold YES
03-05 10.22 FSPCX 62.32 SInsurance NO
04-16 8.35 FSPTX 16.69 STechnology NO
05-09 8.19 FSHOX 56.43 SConstructionandHousing NO
06-03 8.10 FSDAX 17.43 SDefense&Aerospace NO
07-04 8.04 FRESX 45.35 RealEstateInvestment NO
08-15 8.04 FSCSX 18.16 SSoftware&ITServices NO
09-21 7.85 FSVLX 16.65 SConsumerFinance NO
10-01 7.73 FSDPX 68.06 SMaterials NO
11-01 7.71 FSCHX 12.69 SChemicals NO
12-03 7.60 FSUTX 90.22 SUtilities NO
13-05 7.58 FTRNX 104.24 Trend NO
14-04 7.16 FIVFX 21.41 InternationalCapApp NO
15-03 7.05 FNBGX 13.75 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex NO
16-04 6.83 FSRNX 16.70 RealEstateIndex NO
17-01 6.73 FSELX 9.35 SSemiconductors NO
18-03 6.35 FDFFX 36.60 Independence NO
19-13 6.34 FTQGX 24.77 FocusedStock NO
20-02 6.16 FIUIX 27.20 Telecom&Utilities NO
It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
May19 1m-7% 3m-9% 6m-16% 12m-19% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(20May19) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19)
20% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
May19 1m-6% 3m-4% 6m-4% 12m-8% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
ETFs
PTNQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m-5% 12m+10%
QQQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+16% 6m-3% 12m+13%
TQQQ Mar19 1m+11% 3m+53% 6m-20% 12m+18%