Martin D Weiss, founder of Weiss Research, sent me a “Money and Markets: Investing Insights” email which laid out some of the challenges the next president will have. 1. U.S. Commercial Real Estate debt has increased so much that the current bubble is higher than the 2007/8 bubble by 17%. 2. U.S Automobile Industry has 31% of the auto borrowers owing more than the auto is worth – a record, and 29% of auto loans are 6 or greater years – a record. 3. Sinking Global Economy reported by the International Monetary fund as “Global Economy Faltering from Too Slow Growth for Too Long.” 4. No More Weapons are available to the Federal Reserve. With the federal funds rate at 1/4% a cut will do little (but they could try negative interest rates – you pay the bank to let keep a bank account) and printing money (qualitative easing) which has run into the law of diminishing returns thus becoming ineffective. Weiss’s advice “Prepare yourself ahead of time for economic disasters in the pipeline.”
Significent next week is the vote by Great Britain to stay or leave the European Union. There are many predictions as to what the market may do as a result of this vote. An interesting article on the EU impact on GB is reported in this article from 9 years ago. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-426827/What-Britain-HADNT-joined-EU.html
Fidelity took their Spartan Funds – generally index funds with low fees – which previously required a higher initial investment, renamed them, and split up the renamed funds into an “investor class” – 2.5k initial investment & management fees of 0.9% – and “premium class” – 10k initial investment and management fees of 0.5% . I think it is an effort by Fidelity to create low cost index funds to beat Vanguard and ETFs in the index fund game. Fidelity funds still retain the short term trading penalty, the buy and sell only at market close limitations, and no stoploss orders – ETFs do not have those restrictions. The big problem I have with most funds is that their prospectus requires them to be fully invested at all times. The S&P500 went down 47% in the 08/09 crash.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 06/14/16. Not a time to buy.
Each evening I try to listed to Investors Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. On Tuesday he had an interview with Jim Rohrback whose website is www.investment-models.com. Jim is either always invested or not invested in the market. He uses an evaluation of the NYSE index and the Nasdaq index. In this interview he said his Nasdaq just turned to a sell and the NYSE while negative was not a sell yet. You can get a free copy of his report by sending an email to Jim@rixindex.com requesting a copy. There is an interesting article called “Big Names Bailing” at http://dollarcollapse.com/stock-prices/big-names-bailing/ .
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 38.47, a sell price of 37.29, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 125.80)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.22, a sell price 23.96, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.97)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.54, a sell price 41.36, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.27, a sell price 13.82, a rank of 27, and is a hold until it becomes a sell or another fund becomes a buy. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.84)
SGold has a price of 23.55, a sell price 22.37, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 34.12)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested